risk-management

Anybody can win a bet. It could be through

skill or it could just be through dumb luck on

a bet with terrible odds. To consistently win

more than you lose is much harder and

requires skill rather than luck.

Even if you have skill in estimating what the

odds for an event should be, you are likely to

lose many of your bets, as betting by

definition exposes you to uncertain future

outcomes. You will have periods where

everything goes right and periods where

nothing goes right – all due to luck.

To survive all of this, you need a consistent

approach to decide when and how much to

bet to ensure you make the most from the

bookmakers; that is why we advise you

thoroughly examine this page to be a

successful punter and minimize the negative

impact of bad luck.

1. What are your odds target for the day?

What is an Odd Target? Most successful

punters worldwide that cash out steadily has a

formula which goes - DON'T GAMBLE,

INVEST! An Odd Target simply means betting

budget. For Example, I have $10 today, and I

want to make 100$ out of it. This simply

implies I'm looking for 10 odds. This is where

we - Betensured comes in to ensure you have

the best of odds provided daily.

2. How do you select the best odds?

Use the expert’s confidence level to set your

staking plans. For Example, Bordeaux vs

Marseille (X) @ 3.10 odds. Expert Confidence:

65%. If I were lookingfor 3odds, I’d rather

avoid that fixture due to d high risk in the

prediction market and accumulate other

matches with 85% Confidence Level till I get

my 3 Odds.

For accumulators, you are advised not to

accumulate all into one ticket; if you are

doing so, then don't stake too high. See Super

Weekend Category for accumulators.

For Sure 2/3 ODDS category. When you get 2

sets of SURE 2/3 ODDS, you are advised to split

your budget across the given sets of game.

For Example, Set 1. Real Madrid vs Getafe

(HOME WIN). There are days when

unforeseen upsets occur in football. Let's say

it was one of those days where Getafe goes

ahead to beat Madrid... Instead of feeling bad

about how much stake you lost. You have a

backup set- Set 2 to make up for it. It is very

rare for both sets to get foiled.

In Summary, if you have a $100 to stake for

the Sure 2/3 odds. We advise you split your

budget 60:40 across both sets.

3. When should you bet?

At the risk of stating the obvious, you bet

when you believe the odds being offered are

too high, or let me put it in another way, you

think an event is more likely than the bookies

are implying in their odds.

Another way of saying this is you should bet

when the expected value of the bet based on

the probability forecast is greater than 1.

For Example: Barcelona vsLevante@1.03 odds

for Home Win. Some punters still make the

mistake of including this in their games "just

to boost their returned income" This is

absolutely wrong! $1000 x 1.03 odds will still

give you $1000.3 #ValuelessBet!

4. How much should you bet?

There are many different systems for

determining the size of your bets and each

system has a different risk/return profile.

Some of the key characteristics to look at are:

- The risk of going bust;

- The risk of losing money;

- The volatility of returns and the size of your

betting ticket; and

- The magnitude of winnings when you get

things right.

Each of these characteristics is in turn

impacted by the level of edge that you have,

the size of the bookiesover round and various

other factors. There is no approach to position

sizing that will cause a bad forecasting system

to make money – as a starting point, you have

to have an edge-Betensured over the bookies

if you want to win consistently.

Unfortunately, a bad approach to position

sizing can cause a good forecasting system to

lose money. That is, even where you have an

edge over the bookie, you can lose money if

you choose your stake sizes poorly.

5. . What system should you use?

So which is the best system? Or is there some

other system that does a better job than these?

Is it possible to extract the best parts of each

system and combine them? Some

characteristics you may want to have in a

position sizing system are:

- Place more money on bets that are more

certain/lower risk. This reduces the volatility

of returns.

- The system should be fairly tolerant of

forecast errors.

- Bet size shouldn’t depend on arbitrary

factors such as what happened with your last

bet – play each bet on its merits.

- Maximize returns, subject to managing risk.

- You don’t want volatility of your betting

book to be too great.

Time value of money

This section is really only relevant if you bet

on longer term markets such as season

outcomes. Some bets are nearly certain and

have correspondingly low odds. For example,

Manchester United may be clearly top of the

league table half way through the season and

looking strong. You could bet on them

finishing in the Top 6 but you are only getting

odds of 1.01 at best and it is four months until

the bet settles. Even with such small odds,

this could be a well-priced bet if you believe

the outcome is virtually certain. Some position

sizing systems will recommend a large bet if

you have a very high forecast probability. The

catch is that a 1% return in four months is a

poor return on your money and you could

probably do better by pulling the money out

of your bookmaker’s account and sticking it in

the bank. Money has a time value – a rate of

return that you can earn with no risk

Risk tolerance

It is important to understand the theory of

risk management but it is also critical that you

understand your own tolerance for risk.

Psychology is very important in betting (and

investing) and if you feel uncomfortable with

the volatility in your betting returns it will

impact on your ability to maintain the

discipline necessary for a successful betting

system. Maintaining a disciplined approach to

position sizing when you have lost your

nerve, or alternatively whenyou are feeling

invincible, is very challenging. All punters

have great runs where they feel unbeatable

and believe they may just have discovered the

secret to free money. And all punters also

have periods where nothing goes right and

they feel like giving up. Never underestimate

the impact of luck on your short term returns.

Ensuring you operate within your risk

tolerance will help you stay focused.

Everyone goes into betting hoping to win or at

least break evenbut many people don’t. So

how much are you prepared to lose? How do

you feel when you lose half of your book?

These considerations and others feed into the

determination of your standard bet size which

in turn determines how fast you could lose

your money. You need to adapt your system so

that you are comfortable with the volatility.